The Red Wave Polls are Missing

I’ve been diving a little bit into the 2020 election polls recently because what I’m seeing all around me has not been representative of what the mainstream media and pollsters are reporting.

The polls are reporting that Biden has an enormous lead over Trump nationally. Many pundits are predicting a blue wave that will turn all three branches of government democrat after the election. It sounds, strikingly, like the 2016 predictions.

But didn’t the pollsters learn from 2016!?

A microcosm of this odd reporting comes from a brief look at Pennsylvania — an important swing state in the 2020 election. Reuters is still giving Biden a 4% lead over Trump in their most recent poll here.

But I doubt the accuracy of this poll completely, because if you look at voter registration in PA between 2016 and 2020 there is an overwhelming increase in Republican voter registration, while, simultaneously, a large drop off in Democrat registration.

Democrats have gained 85,000 new voters between 2016 and 2020 while Republicans have gained a whopping 300,000.

In 2016 Pennsylvania was super close! Trump won by 50k votes. A .7% margin.

Now, let’s take new voter registration into account and consider that Trump has a 96% approval rating among Republican voters. Assuming that these PA voters will most likely turn out for Trump again in 2020, Trump is showing a lead of close to 250,000 voters in Pennsylvania.

That means, despite what MSM says, PA is leaning strongly Republican.

I don’t have time to go deeper today, but this is a trend across the entire United States. The polls are covering up for a lack of enthusiasm in Biden’s base. Many of the swings states are leaning towards Trump.

I think it is very likely that we see a large red wave in this election. Whether or not those results will be accepted are still up in the air.

For more content on Investing, Sound Money Economics, Localism, and more, subscribe to the Cultural Arbitrage newsletter here.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store